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China had taken “quite radical” steps to tackle climate change and the ageing population and was now reaching a stage of more restrained rate of growth, Garnaut is reported as saying by the Sydney Morning Herald.
"Coal use [in China] has hardly increased at all despite the growth in the economy," he reportedly said. "That's contributing to a surplus of coal in China and internationally, and putting big downward pressure on prices, with implications for Australia.
"My guess is that [Chinese economic growth] will settle in the 7 to 8 per cent range, but everyone has to recognise that there is a bit of a risk of overshooting on the downside."
China's economy would no longer benefit as much from the ''easy boost'' of people moving from rural areas to the cities and rising wages would force labour to be used much more efficiently, Garnaut reportedly said.
China's once-huge current account surplus was also shrinking and had the potential to push up the cost of borrowing money while China's current account surplus was likely to fall within the internationally acceptable range of 2 to 3% in the coming years, he reportedly said.
Major Chinese coal ports including Qinhuangdao, Tangshan and Huanghua are approaching their capacity limits as rising stockpiles reflect the impact of an overall slowdown on the country’s energy sector. As the largest coal loading port in the world, Qinhuangdao accounts for half of China’s coal needs and functions as a clear barometer of the state of the domestic market.
Coal inventory at the port reportedly totalled 9.1Mt by June 25, just shy of the terminal’s designed volume of 10.2Mt.
According to official state media outlet Xinhua, coal stockpiles at the three ports together reached 18.3Mt by less than a week later.
Coal piles at the Hebei province facilities as of the end of June reached 8.6Mt for Qinhuangdao, 8.4Mt for Tangshan and 1.3Mt for Huanghua, where two new berths became operational in February.
The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association said the nation’s coal stocks were estimated at about 300Mt, equivalent to a month’s worth of consumption for the entire country.
An economic slowdown and a surge in imports during the first four months of 2012 have affected the domestic coal market through oversupply downstream and softened prices.